XRP has slipped back to $1.42, breaking below the key $1.45 support that held the recent range. Volume is running well below the 30-day average and the MACD has flipped bearish, raising the pressure on the next support zone around $1.40. If that level fails, the next orientation point sits far below at $1.25.
Key takeaways in a nutshell
Support broken: XRP trades at $1.42 after a 5.3% daily drop, slipping under the $1.45 support that defined the recent range.
Trend still intact: Price sits just above the 50-day average at $1.41 and clearly over the 200-day at $1.28, keeping the broader trend alive.
$1.40 is the line: The $1.40 secondary support is now the decisive level: losing it opens the path toward the $1.25 month low.
Momentum cooling: RSI at 57 is neutral with a downward tilt, while MACD has turned bearish and volume runs 23.6% below the 30-day average.
AI sees upside: The AI forecast model projects a 2026 range of $1.50 to $2.23, with a midpoint near $1.83, roughly 28.7% above spot.
What happened to the XRP price?
XRP is trading at $1.42, down 5.3% in the last 24 hours and 4.5% over the past week. The move pushed the price below the primary support at $1.45, the level that had capped the downside during the recent consolidation.
Over a longer horizon the picture is more mixed: XRP is still up 36.6% over 60 days, but down 50.3% year-on-year. The notable detail is volume: at $2.45 billion, 24-hour turnover sits 23.6% below the 30-day average, suggesting the drop is driven more by missing buyers than by aggressive selling pressure.
Key price levels for XRP
On the upside, the first clear resistance stands at $1.56, the weekly high; a reclaim would put the $1.61 zone and later the $1.66 month high back in play. On the downside, the critical area is now $1.40, the secondary support that aligns closely with the 50-day moving average at $1.41 and marks the last defense before a deeper correction. If $1.40 breaks on a daily close, the next relevant orientation point sits at the $1.25 month low.
XRP indicators: RSI, MACD and volume
The three indicators currently paint a mixed to cautious picture. RSI at 57 is neutral but tilted lower, showing that momentum has cooled without reaching oversold territory. MACD has flipped bearish with a value of 0.036 and a histogram sliding into negative territory, confirming that short-term momentum has turned against the bulls. Volume is below average at 23.6% under the 30-day mean, which signals weak conviction behind the current move rather than panic selling. Together, the readings describe a market that is losing short-term momentum but not yet in a clear breakdown.
Relative Strength Index
MACD
AI forecast for XRP
Looking toward year-end 2026, our AI forecast model places XRP in a range between $1.50 and $2.23. The central expected value sits near $1.83, which should not be read as a price target but as the midpoint of a broad probability distribution.
The width of this range is the key message: it reflects a market that could stabilize modestly or continue a stronger recovery, depending on how the current support test resolves. In the conservative case, the model implies only about 5.4% upside from today's price, while the optimistic case points to roughly 57.2%. That spread underlines how much the next few weeks of price action matter for the medium-term setup.
What could happen now?
Bullish scenario
A bullish turn would need XRP to first reclaim $1.45 and then push through the $1.56 weekly high on clearly rising volume. Such a move would repair the broken support, reset the short-term structure and open the path toward the $1.61 and $1.66 zones. For that to be sustainable, RSI should climb without overheating above 70 and the MACD would need to curl back toward a bullish crossover. Crucially, any recovery attempt should not lose the $1.40 area again, otherwise the setup would quickly weaken.
Trigger: > $1.56 with elevated volume
Bearish scenario
The bearish case activates if XRP closes decisively below $1.40, the secondary support that currently backs the 50-day average. A break there would confirm the loss of the recent range and shift momentum further toward sellers, with the bearish MACD and weak volume adding to the pressure. The next clear reference level sits at the $1.25 month low, which would also come into focus. A sustained move under $1.25 would call the broader 60-day uptrend into question and bring the 200-day average at $1.28 into play as the final medium-term anchor.
Trigger: < $1.40
Conclusion: $1.40 level decides the direction
The technical setup is fragile but not broken, with XRP still above both the 50- and 200-day averages despite losing its primary support. The decisive area is the band between $1.40 and $1.45.
A reclaim of $1.45 and a push through $1.56 would quickly turn the picture constructive again and reopen the path toward the recent month high. A clean break below $1.40, on the other hand, would expose the $1.25 zone and put the broader trend under real stress. With volume still thin and MACD leaning bearish, the next few trading days are likely to set the direction.
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Continue to KrakenSince 2017, Philipp Duringer has been deeply involved in Bitcoin, crypto assets and digital financial markets. As the founder of Coinbird, he combines years of crypto experience with more than 15 years of technical experience in IT and digital products. His goal is to make crypto easier to understand, more transparent and easier to compare.
About the authorAI-assisted: This price analysis is generated automatically based on structured market data and reviewed through defined quality rules. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell crypto assets.
