Gram (Toncoin) is rebounding sharply, climbing 8% in 24 hours to $1.09 after a brutal month that pushed price down more than 25%. The RSI has collapsed to 24, signaling deeply oversold conditions, while volume surges 123% above the 30-day average. Now the question is whether buyers can defend $0.99 and crack the $1.16 resistance, or whether this is just a relief bounce inside a broken trend.
Key takeaways in a nutshell
Oversold bounce: GRAM jumps 8.3% in 24 hours to $1.09, reacting from the monthly low near $0.99 after a 25% drawdown over 30 days.
Trend still broken: Price trades 19% below the 50-day average ($1.35) and almost 29% below the 200-day average ($1.53), confirming a clearly bearish structure.
Decision at $1.16: The $1.16 resistance is the first hurdle bulls must clear; support at $0.94 is the line that must not break.
RSI screams oversold: The RSI at 24 is deep in oversold territory, which often precedes short-term relief rallies but does not confirm a trend reversal.
AI sees upside: Our AI forecast model projects a 2026 year-end range of $1.57 to $2.59, implying 46% to 141% upside from current levels.
What happened to the Gram (Toncoin) price?
Gram (Toncoin) is trading at $1.09, up 8.3% in the last 24 hours after bouncing from the monthly low at $0.99. The move comes with real force behind it: 24-hour volume of $74.4 million is running 123% above the 30-day average, the clearest sign of engagement in weeks.
Zoom out, and the picture stays uncomfortable. GRAM is down 7.3% over the week and more than 25% over the past 30 days, with the token sitting roughly 87% below its all-time high. The bounce is real, but it is happening inside a damaged trend, which makes the next few sessions all the more decisive.
Key price levels for Gram (Toncoin)
The first hurdle sits at $1.16: a daily close above this level would open the path toward the secondary resistance at $1.29 and bring the $1.48 monthly high back into view. On the downside, the key support is $0.94, a zone that would need to absorb pressure to keep the short-term rebound alive. A break below would quickly expose the secondary support at $0.86 and risk a full retest of the recent lows.
Gram (Toncoin) indicators: RSI, MACD and volume
The three indicators currently paint a mixed picture that captures the tension in GRAM perfectly. The RSI at 24 is deeply oversold, a reading that historically triggers reflexive bounces and fits the current 8% rally. The MACD, however, remains firmly bearish at -0.078, and the histogram shows momentum has already started weakening again after a brief improvement. Volume at 123% above the 30-day average is the loudest signal: conviction is returning, but direction remains unconfirmed. Together, the setup suggests a potential short-term relief move inside a still-broken trend, with the next daily closes deciding whether this becomes more than a bounce.
Relative Strength Index
MACD
AI forecast for Gram (Toncoin)
Looking toward year-end 2026, our AI forecast model places Gram (Toncoin) in a projected range of $1.57 to $2.59. The central expected value sits at $2.12, which is not a price target but the midpoint of a broad probability distribution.
The width of that range is the real message: it reflects how much uncertainty is currently priced into GRAM after a steep drawdown. In the conservative case, the model implies roughly 46% upside from current levels, while the optimistic case suggests about 141% upside by year-end 2026. Both scenarios depend heavily on whether GRAM can stabilize above the key support zone in the coming weeks.
What could happen now?
Bullish scenario
For the bulls to take real control, GRAM needs a decisive daily close above $1.16 with volume staying above average. That would validate the current bounce as more than oversold noise and open the path toward $1.29 and potentially the $1.48 monthly high. The RSI still has plenty of room to run before overheating, but the MACD would need to flip from its current bearish reading to confirm the shift. Crucially, $0.94 must not be lost again, otherwise the breakout thesis collapses.
Trigger: > $1.16 with elevated volume
Bearish scenario
If GRAM loses the $0.94 support on a daily close, the fragile rebound setup breaks and the pressure returns immediately. The next reference zone sits at the secondary support of $0.86, which also aligns with a potential retest of the broader downtrend. A sustained move below that area would deepen the gap to the 50-day average at $1.35 and make a recovery toward the 200-day average at $1.53 significantly harder. In that case, the medium-term trend stays firmly in bearish hands.
Trigger: < $0.94
Conclusion: Decision at $1.16
The technical setup is fragile but interesting, with a deeply oversold RSI and a volume surge colliding with a still-bearish MACD and a broken moving-average structure. The decisive area runs from the $0.94 support to the $1.16 resistance.
A clean break above $1.16 would turn the current bounce into a genuine recovery attempt, with $1.29 and $1.48 as the next upside references. A drop below $0.94, however, would quickly expose $0.86 and reinforce the bearish trend that has dominated for weeks. The next few trading days are likely to set the direction.
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Continue to KrakenSince 2017, Philipp Duringer has been deeply involved in Bitcoin, crypto assets and digital financial markets. As the founder of Coinbird, he combines years of crypto experience with more than 15 years of technical experience in IT and digital products. His goal is to make crypto easier to understand, more transparent and easier to compare.
About the authorAI-assisted: This price analysis is generated automatically based on structured market data and reviewed through defined quality rules. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell crypto assets.
