XRP is trading at $1.38 after a 4% daily bounce that pushes the price right into the first resistance zone around $1.37. Volume is running well below the 30-day average, and the RSI near 37 shows that buyers are still cautious. The next move will decide whether this is the start of a recovery or just another test before support at $1.24 comes back into play.
Key takeaways in a nutshell
Bounce into resistance: XRP trades at $1.38 after a 4% daily gain, pushing directly into the primary resistance zone at $1.37.
Trend picture mixed: Price sits 2.1% below the 50-day average at $1.41 but still 7.8% above the 200-day line at $1.28.
Decision zone: The area between resistance at $1.37 and support at $1.24 defines the short-term direction.
Momentum still weak: RSI at 37 shows subdued momentum, and MACD remains bearish with no fresh crossover.
AI sees upside: The AI forecast model projects a 2026 year-end range of $1.73 to $2.59, with a midpoint around $2.12.
What happened to the XRP price?
XRP trades at $1.38, up around 4% on the day and testing the weekly high in the same move. That bounce lifts the price straight into the first resistance zone at $1.37, which has capped attempts higher in recent sessions.
The wider picture stays mixed: XRP is up 3.3% over the last seven days but still down 7.3% over 30 days, with the monthly low at $1.26 not far below. Volume tells the clearest story: 24-hour turnover of $1.67 billion is roughly 38% below the 30-day average, so this bounce is happening on thin participation.
Key price levels for XRP
The first hurdle sits at $1.37, directly where price is trading now; a clean move above would open the path toward the secondary resistance at $1.44 and the 50-day average at $1.41. Support at $1.24 is the key floor, aligning closely with the monthly low at $1.26 and acting as the last defense before the trend picture turns fragile. If that zone fails, the next relevant reference below is the secondary support at $1.19.
XRP indicators: RSI, MACD and volume
The three indicators currently paint a cautious picture that does not fully confirm the daily bounce. The RSI at 37 sits in the lower half of the range, closer to oversold territory than to any sign of overheating. The MACD remains bearish at -0.037, and the histogram series shows no fresh momentum shift, which weakens the case for a sustained breakout. Volume at 38% below the 30-day average is the clearest warning: a move into resistance on thin turnover is rarely the start of a trend change. Together, the three signals suggest that XRP is testing the key zone without strong conviction yet.
Relative Strength Index
MACD
AI forecast for XRP
Looking toward year-end 2026, our AI forecast model places XRP in a wide range between $1.73 and $2.59. The central expected value sits at around $2.12, which should not be read as a price target but as the midpoint of a broad probability distribution.
The width of that range matters more than any single number: it reflects the uncertainty around how XRP resolves the current test of resistance. In the conservative case, the model implies roughly 25.8% upside from current levels, while the optimistic case points to about 87.6%. Both scenarios suggest an upward bias over the longer horizon, but neither removes the need for a confirmed break of the near-term resistance.
What could happen now?
Bullish scenario
A clean daily close above $1.37 backed by rising turnover would turn the current test into a genuine breakout attempt. The next reference would be the 50-day average at $1.41 and then the secondary resistance at $1.44. For this setup to stay intact, the RSI should recover without jumping into overheated territory, and the MACD would need to curl toward a bullish crossover with volume returning closer to the 30-day average. The main hold condition is that $1.37, once reclaimed, is not immediately lost again.
Trigger: > $1.37 with elevated volume
Bearish scenario
If XRP gets rejected at $1.37 and slips back under the monthly low near $1.26, pressure on the key support at $1.24 would build quickly. A clear break of $1.24 would confirm the bearish MACD and open the way toward the secondary support at $1.19. In that case, the still-positive distance to the 200-day average at $1.28 would be at risk, which would weaken the medium-term trend picture noticeably. The weak volume profile makes this scenario the one to watch closely as long as resistance holds.
Trigger: < $1.24
Conclusion: Decision at $1.37
The technical setup is mixed, but the decision zone is clearly defined. The decisive area runs between resistance at $1.37 and support at $1.24.
A confirmed breakout above $1.37 with better volume would shift the short-term bias toward $1.41 and $1.44, while a loss of $1.24 would expose $1.19 and challenge the trend cushion above the 200-day average. With RSI subdued, MACD still bearish and volume well below average, the burden of proof lies with the bulls. The next few trading days are likely to set the direction.
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Continue to KrakenSince 2017, Philipp Duringer has been deeply involved in Bitcoin, crypto assets and digital financial markets. As the founder of Coinbird, he combines years of crypto experience with more than 15 years of technical experience in IT and digital products. His goal is to make crypto easier to understand, more transparent and easier to compare.
About the authorAI-assisted: This price analysis is generated automatically based on structured market data and reviewed through defined quality rules. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell crypto assets.
