Solana is under heavy pressure: SOL dropped nearly 7% in 24 hours to $94.78 and is now testing the critical support zone at $94.20. Volume is running more than 108% above the 30-day average, confirming the sell-off is backed by real activity. If this level breaks, the next relevant reference sits at $89.70, with the 50-day average far above at $109.
Key takeaways in a nutshell
Sharp sell-off: SOL trades at $94.78 after a 6.76% drop in 24 hours and a 9.36% loss over the week, pushing price toward the monthly low.
Trend under pressure: The price sits 13% below the 50-day average at $109, while still holding roughly 7% above the 200-day average at $88.60.
Decision at $94.20: Support at $94.20 is the key level: a clean break opens the path toward $89.70, the next meaningful downside reference.
Momentum fading: RSI at 40 signals clear weakness without being oversold, and MACD remains bearish at -2.55, confirming the downward bias.
AI sees upside into 2026: The AI forecast model projects a 2026 range of $109.95 to $181.27, with a midpoint near $141.17, well above current levels.
What happened to the Solana price?
Solana is under visible stress. SOL fell 6.76% in the last 24 hours to $94.78, bringing the weekly loss to 9.36% and the 30-day drawdown to more than 20%. The price now sits almost exactly at the monthly low of $95.50, with the weekly low at the same level.
What makes the move notable is the volume behind it: $5.88 billion in 24-hour turnover, roughly 108% above the 30-day average. That is not a quiet drift lower, that is active selling. The weekly high at $107 already looks distant, and SOL is now trading well below its 50-day average of $109.
Key price levels for Solana
The nearest resistance sits at $107, aligned with the weekly high; only a reclaim of this zone would ease the immediate pressure and open the door back toward $111. Support at $94.20 is now the decisive line in the sand, because price is already pressing directly against it and a break would confirm the breakdown from the monthly range. Below that, the next relevant reference is $89.70, a zone that would also bring the 200-day average at $88.60 into focus.
Solana indicators: RSI, MACD and volume
The three indicators currently paint a consistent picture, and it is not a friendly one. RSI at 40 signals clear weakness but has not yet reached oversold territory, meaning there is still room for further downside before any technical bounce becomes likely. MACD at -2.55 remains firmly bearish and continues to confirm the loss of momentum visible in price action. Volume at 108% above the 30-day average shows that the current move is being driven by real selling pressure, not thin liquidity. Together, the three signals suggest sellers are in control and bulls need a concrete trigger to change that narrative.
Relative Strength Index
MACD
AI forecast for Solana
Looking toward year-end 2026, our AI forecast model places Solana in a range from $109.95 on the conservative side to $181.27 on the optimistic side. The central expected value sits at $141.17, but this is not a price target: it is the midpoint of a broad probability distribution.
The span itself is the key message, because it reflects the current uncertainty around trend direction and macro conditions. In the conservative case, SOL would still trade about 15.55% above today's level; in the optimistic case, the upside widens to roughly 90.52%. Even the lower bound of the model's range sits meaningfully above the current spot price, which contrasts with the fragile short-term technical picture.
What could happen now?
Bullish scenario
A bullish turn would require SOL to reclaim the $107 resistance on sustained volume, ideally pushing through toward the secondary resistance at $111. In that case, the short-term setup would improve noticeably: RSI would lift out of the weak zone without immediately overheating, and MACD would need to start closing its negative gap. Volume should remain elevated to confirm genuine demand rather than a short squeeze. For the move to stay intact, the $94.20 support must not be lost again on any pullback.
Trigger: > $107 with elevated volume
Bearish scenario
The bearish case activates if $94.20 gives way on a daily close, confirming the breakdown already hinted at by the current price action. In that case, momentum would deteriorate further: RSI would likely slide into oversold territory and MACD would extend its bearish reading. The next concrete reference below is $89.70, which also sits close to the 200-day average at $88.60. A loss of that zone would put the medium-term trend itself under serious question.
Trigger: < $94.20
Conclusion: $94.20 level decides the direction
The technical setup is fragile, but not yet broken: SOL still trades above the 200-day average, even as every short-term signal points lower. The decisive area is the band between $94.20 support and $107 resistance.
A reclaim of $107 would be the first real sign that sellers are losing their grip and could shift attention back toward $111 and beyond. A break of $94.20, on the other hand, would open the path toward $89.70 and bring the 200-day average into play as the last major defense. With volume running well above average and momentum clearly weak, the next few trading days are likely to set the direction.
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Continue to KrakenSince 2017, Philipp Duringer has been deeply involved in Bitcoin, crypto assets and digital financial markets. As the founder of Coinbird, he combines years of crypto experience with more than 15 years of technical experience in IT and digital products. His goal is to make crypto easier to understand, more transparent and easier to compare.
About the authorAI-assisted: This price analysis is generated automatically based on structured market data and reviewed through defined quality rules. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell crypto assets.
