XRP is under pressure: the price has dropped more than 6% in 24 hours and is now sitting directly on the key support at $1.20. The 50-day average is already well above spot, MACD remains bearish, and volume is clearly elevated as this level is being tested. If $1.20 breaks on this kind of flow, the next relevant zone sits at $1.13, while a defense could set up a push back toward $1.34.
Key takeaways in a nutshell
Support under fire: XRP trades at $1.22 after a 6.3% daily drop, pressing directly against the key support at $1.20.
Trend turning fragile: Price sits 12.2% below the 50-day average ($1.39) and 3.9% below the 200-day ($1.27), a clear short-term downtrend.
$1.20 decides: The $1.20 zone is the line in the sand. A clean break opens the door toward $1.13.
Momentum weak: RSI at 43 and a bearish MACD confirm that sellers still hold the initiative without being extreme yet.
AI sees upside room: Our AI forecast for year-end 2026 ranges from $1.73 to $2.59, with a midpoint of $2.12.
What happened to the XRP price?
XRP has lost 6.3% in the last 24 hours and is trading at $1.22, exactly at the lower edge of its weekly range between $1.20 and $1.34. The move pushes the price directly onto the primary support zone, with the 30-day performance now at -18.7%.
What stands out is the volume: with $2.07 billion traded in 24 hours, turnover sits 23% above the 30-day average. Elevated volume into a support test is the kind of flow that tends to decide, not delay, the next move.
Key price levels for XRP
The first resistance sits at $1.34, the weekly high; a reclaim would relieve immediate pressure and put the $1.41 zone back in play. Support stands at $1.20, the monthly low and the line that has defined the lower range for weeks, which is exactly why it matters so much now. If that level gives way, the next relevant reference below is $1.13, where the secondary support comes into focus.
XRP indicators: RSI, MACD and volume
The three indicators currently paint a consistent picture, and it leans bearish. The RSI at 43 shows clear weakness without being oversold, so there is still room to the downside before any technical rebound becomes likely. MACD is negative with a bearish signal, confirming that short-term momentum remains on the sellers' side. Volume at 23% above the 30-day average underlines that this is not a quiet drift lower, but an active test of support. Taken together, the setup suggests that the $1.20 zone is being pressured by real flow, not noise.
Relative Strength Index
MACD
AI forecast for XRP
Looking toward year-end 2026, our AI forecast model places XRP in a range from $1.73 on the conservative side to $2.59 at the optimistic end. The central expected value lands at $2.12, which is not a price target, but the midpoint of a broad probability distribution.
The width of that range is the message itself: it reflects the uncertainty around whether XRP can defend its current support zone and rebuild a trend. In the conservative scenario, that still implies around 41.4% upside from current levels, while the optimistic case would mean roughly 111.0% more. Both outcomes depend heavily on whether the $1.20 area holds in the coming sessions.
What could happen now?
Bullish scenario
The bullish case needs XRP to first defend $1.20 convincingly and then reclaim $1.34 on strong turnover. That would flip the weekly range and open the path toward the $1.41 secondary resistance. For the move to be credible, RSI should lift off 43 without immediately overheating, while MACD would need to roll back toward neutral and volume would have to stay elevated. Crucially, $1.20 should not be revisited as resistance once it is defended, otherwise the setup loses its foundation.
Trigger: > $1.34 with elevated volume
Bearish scenario
The bearish case triggers if XRP loses $1.20 on a daily close, especially with volume staying above average. That would confirm the break of the monthly low and expose the next reference at $1.13. Momentum would almost certainly deteriorate further, with RSI drifting toward oversold territory and MACD extending its negative reading. A sustained move below $1.13 would put additional pressure on the medium-term trend, which is already sitting under both the 50-day and 200-day averages.
Trigger: < $1.20
Conclusion: $1.20 level decides the direction
The technical setup is fragile, but not yet broken. The decisive area is the $1.20 support zone, which is being tested on clearly elevated volume.
A defense here, followed by a reclaim of $1.34, would turn the current weakness into a potential base and reopen the upside. A clean break below $1.20, on the other hand, exposes $1.13 and would further weaken a trend that is already trading below both key moving averages. The next few trading days are likely to set the direction.
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Continue to KrakenSince 2017, Philipp Duringer has been deeply involved in Bitcoin, crypto assets and digital financial markets. As the founder of Coinbird, he combines years of crypto experience with more than 15 years of technical experience in IT and digital products. His goal is to make crypto easier to understand, more transparent and easier to compare.
About the authorAI-assisted: This price analysis is generated automatically based on structured market data and reviewed through defined quality rules. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell crypto assets.
