Oil surges, Fed turns hawkish, ETF flows rebound.
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Jul 10, 2026

Iran Ceasefire Collapse Rocks Crypto and Risk Assets

What mattered this week

🛢️ Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over, Oil Jumps 6% as Risk Assets Slide

Brent surged 6.2% to $78.73 and the Dow fell 577 points after fresh US-Iran strikes, reviving inflation fears that pressure crypto.

🏦 Fed Minutes Show 9-8 Split on 2026 Hike, Cuts Pushed Further Out

Half of FOMC members now project at least one 2026 hike and PCE was revised up to 3.6%, tightening the liquidity backdrop for crypto.

📈 Spot Bitcoin ETFs End 10-Day Outflow Streak With $510M Inflows

BTC ETFs pulled in $510.7M over three sessions after June's record $4.5B outflow, a key sentiment reversal driving ~45% of weekly price action.

🇪🇺 Binance Locked Out of EU as MiCA Deadline Hits 2M French Users

Binance halted trading across France, Italy, Spain and Poland after missing MiCA licensing, with only 244 of 3,000 EU firms cleared, reshaping liquidity.

🏛️ CLARITY Act Misses July 4 Deadline, Senate Vote Slips Toward August

Polymarket 2026 passage odds fell to 48% from 74% as the biggest US crypto regulatory catalyst stalls, pushing back BTC, ETH and XRP upside.

⚙️ Strategy's mNAV Drops Below 1, Halting ATM Equity-for-Bitcoin Flywheel

Strategy's $50.4B enterprise value fell below its $51.1B BTC stack, pausing equity issuance and breaking a key structural bid for bitcoin demand.

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